ent way, and Prescotts Cowboys would fall into the top quintile that holds on to much of its high level of performance through the next 10 starts. We c

With a defense and special teams both ranked in the middle of the pack, its clear that the Dallas Cowboys hopes this season rest with an offense that is ranked first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and EPA per snap. But Dallas is nearing a crossroads at the games most important position. Should they continue to ride rookie sensation Dak Prescott, or lean on veteran Tony Romo?when he returns? Its not as simple as saying, The team has gone 5-1 so far, so lets stick with him. The Cowboys coaches are obviously in the best position to understand each QBs abilities, but it might be wise to add some numbers to the discussion.Prescott has only six starts under his belt, so we dont have a long track record to examine. Theres little doubt hes talented, but when players start out very hot, its very difficult to sustain that level of performance. Usually, many favorable factors have combined to allow such a strong start, and those factors are far from assured to persist. Its not a guarantee, just a strong tendency known as reversion to the mean.To examine this further, I grouped all new starting QBs since 2001 into five quintiles (equally sized groups) according to how well their entire offenses did in their first six starts. Then I compared those performances with how each quintiles offenses did in their next 10 starts. The idea is to look at offenses as a whole, rather than just how the QB himself performs, for two reasons. Dallas has a lot of good pieces around Prescott, and those pieces and his own abilities complement each other. And overall offensive performance is also the thing the Cowboys care about the most -- theyre not in a fantasy league, after all.Prescott is in good company in the top quintile, which includes guys such as?Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger?and Cam Newton. But it also includes QBs who faded after hot starts, such as Tim Rattay, Aaron Brooks and Marc Bulger. Trevor Siemian and Carson Wentz, two other notable newcomers to the league, would currently fall into the second-best group.Each of the five quintiles regresses to the mean in a different way, and Prescotts Cowboys would fall into the top quintile that holds on to much of its high level of performance through the next 10 starts. We can expect the Dallas offense to regress similarly, in the manner reflected in the graph below.Accounting for that regression, Prescotts Cowboys can expect to average about .09 EPA per snap, which would still be excellent, about sixth or seventh in the league. For context, over a typical game of about 67 plays, .09 EPA per snap would translate into about +4 net points above the league average (.03 EPA per snap is the league average so far in 2016). But how does this compare with what we would expect from Romo?The Cowboys offensive production during Romos career averages .07 EPA per snap, or about +3 net points per game above average, slightly less than what we might expect with Prescott. But in his last 32 starts, Dallas has performed slightly better, at .09 EPA per snap, or about +4 net points above average per game.There are many considerations we havent accounted for, such as Romos age and associated injury concerns, Dez Bryants absence or presence, or opponent strength. But by seeing how top offenses tend to perform after hot starts under new QBs, we can get a rough approximation of what to expect through the rest of the regular season. The results of this exercise show that, analytically speaking, the Cowboys can feel justified going with either quarterback. Nikola Jokic Jersey . McCarthy, a player who played some games in the second tier for Wigan at the start of this season, would go on to shine inside Evertons midfield, outplaying the man he was brought in to replace, on one of the grandest stages in English football. On Saturday, it was fitting that Manchester Uniteds most recent dagger into the chest was delivered by Frenchman Yohan Cabaye, a wonderfully gifted central midfielder who put on an outstanding effort for Newcastle at Old Trafford. Alex English Nuggets Jersey . PETERSBURG, Fla. http://www.nuggetsproshop.com/Will-Barton-Nuggets-Jersey/ . William Carrier opened the scoring for Cape Breton (6-4-2), but Andrew Ryan tied the game and Brent Andrews put the Mooseheads (8-6-0) in front for good with a short-handed goal at 13:49 of the second period. Michael Porter Nuggets Jersey . The native of Mont-Tremblant, Que., captured a World Cup downhill event Saturday, his second this year and fifth career victory on the circuit. Allen Iverson Nuggets Jersey . It was the second consecutive win for the Pacers (2-5), who lost their first five preseason games. Jeff Teague led the Hawks (1-5) with 17 points and eight assists and Al Horford had 12 points and seven rebounds. Mike Scott scored 15 of his 17 points in the second half. LONDON -- Roger Federer loses to Milos Raonic in 5 sets in the Wimbledon semifinals. ' ' '